Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:13:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa8af…9426
sports · 73 markets active 1h ago
7.5score
+$503 +32%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$503 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$200
Realized+$503
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses42 / 20
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions12
Markets (closed)62 / 73
History coverage66d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 12 History 62 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$29
14 days+$95
30 days+$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Morocco 67¢ 68¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-2%)
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by June 30? No 88¢ 93¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+6%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Qatar 43¢ 44¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Under 76¢ 76¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) Timberwolves 51¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) Nottingham Forest FC 70¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Pittsburgh Pirates 34¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Utah Utah 47¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) Crystal Palace FC 62¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $14 +$36 +270%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $16 +$9 +54%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $17 +$8 +49%
Named storm forms before hurricane season? Jun 02 $93 +$27 +29%
Will a hurricane form by May 31? Jun 02 $71 +$3 +4%
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31? Jun 01 $103 +$32 +30%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $20 +$5 +27%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) May 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $13 +$12 +89%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $14 +$11 +75%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $17 +$8 +47%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $13 −$13 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5 May 23 $16 +$8 +52%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 19 $16 +$9 +56%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23? May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5) May 17 $6 +$3 +47%
Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5) May 16 $40 +$9 +24%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) May 15 $19 +$5 +28%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? May 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) May 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5) May 11 $101 +$38 +38%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 10 $16 +$9 +59%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $9 +$41 +456%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) May 09 $20 +$6 +28%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 06 $15 +$10 +64%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 05 $12 +$13 +108%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 03 $20 +$6 +28%
Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5) May 03 $21 +$4 +20%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $15 +$10 +67%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) May 02 $15 +$10 +67%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5 May 01 $12 +$13 +104%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 01 $13 +$12 +89%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? Apr 30 $7 −$7 -100%
SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5 Apr 28 $12 +$14 +117%
Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5) Apr 28 $9 +$6 +70%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) Apr 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Utah Apr 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 25 $9 +$6 +61%
Spread: Athletic Club (-1.5) Apr 21 $11 +$4 +37%
Athletic Club vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 2.5 Apr 21 $8 +$7 +92%
Will AZ win on 2026-04-16? Apr 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 63% +$407
other 19% +$44
weather 17% +$61
world 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $19 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $16 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 11h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 11h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 11h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 11h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 11h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 11h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 13h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 13h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 43¢ $22 17h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $16 17h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 18h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 19h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 67¢ $31 23h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 67¢ $3 23h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 67¢ $0 23h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 67¢ $12 23h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 67¢ $3 23h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $0 26h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 26h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $7 26h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 37h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 38h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 67¢ $1 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)+10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +34.7% +21.9% 60% 60% +27.0%
≤30d 22 +8.2% -2.1% 68% 64% +6.7%
≤90d 62 +22.2% +10.6% 68% 66% +23.1%
all 62 +22.2% +10.6% 68% 66% +23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.6% 66% +23.1%
10% +0.0% 65% +11.3%
15% -9.6% 52% +0.5%
20% -18.5% 44% -9.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.74 · official $199.74 (match) · 215 history records