Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:58:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa8ae…8eb7 world 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,010 (+5%) realized +$5,547 · open −$2,537
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%69W / 85L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$349per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$5,979now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,309
7 days+$1,313
14 days+$1,313
30 days+$2,632
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$5,674
other 18% +$282
crypto 8% −$1,491
finance 5% −$448
sports 4% −$296
politics 2% −$231
economics 2% −$653
tech 0% −$197
culture 0% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +48.3% +34.2% 100% 100% +6.0%
≤30d 7 +69.1% +53.0% 100% 71% +0.7%
≤90d 32 -26.2% -33.2% 50% 34% -4.4%
all 154 -0.3% -9.8% 45% 37% -0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 37% -0.0%
10% -18.4% 27% -9.6%
15% -26.3% 20% -18.3%
20% -33.5% 18% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$68 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$5,979
Realized+$5,547
Unrealized−$2,537
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses69 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Open positions14
Markets (closed)154 / 168
History coverage164d
Avg bet$349
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 69¢ 62¢ $4,195 $3,809 −$386 (-9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 67¢ 44¢ $1,377 $896 −$481 (-35%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 62¢ 18¢ $1,554 $438 −$1,117 (-72%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $246 $239 −$7 (-3%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 84¢ 80¢ $214 $204 −$10 (-5%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 26¢ 21¢ $208 $164 −$44 (-21%)
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 33¢ 43¢ $69 $90 +$21 (+31%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 35¢ 10¢ $271 $81 −$191 (-70%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 64¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $30 $5 −$25 (-84%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 53¢ 1¢ $106 $2 −$104 (-98%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $187 $1 −$185 (-99%)
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 25 $7,639 +$1,309 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +79%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 04 $7,869 +$1,061 +14%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $21 +$73 +341%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 27 $191 +$46 +24%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 26 $5,839 +$3 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $1,655 +$137 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 12 $1,245 +$246 +20%
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? May 12 $225 +$22 +10%
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? May 11 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $372 −$214 -58%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May? May 05 $348 −$337 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? May 04 $1,215 +$298 +25%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 27 $1,368 +$265 +19%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $700 on April 23? Apr 23 $50 −$48 -96%
Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Apr 22 $834 +$115 +14%
Will South Africa win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Apr 15 $212 −$212 -100%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Apr 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Apr 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 15 $499 +$113 +23%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 15 $53 +$3 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 07 $35 −$35 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March Apr 07 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on March 23? Apr 07 $238 −$238 -100%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 07 $453 −$453 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 07 $1,086 −$60 -6%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Apr 07 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31? Apr 07 $181 +$19 +10%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 07 $258 +$42 +16%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 24 $202 −$202 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)? Mar 23 $7 −$7 -100%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 23 $325 −$54 -17%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 21 $885 −$84 -10%
Will Max Homa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 19 $267 +$6 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 17 $297 +$203 +68%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 11 $270 −$270 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 10 $352 −$2 -0%
Will Elena Rybakina win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026? Mar 06 $2 +$19 +900%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Mar 05 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Mar 05 $14 +$286 +1983%
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealand - Who wins the toss? Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealand Mar 04 $244 −$244 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 2? Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 2? Mar 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Will West Indies win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Mar 02 $245 +$13 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $49 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 65¢ $1,190 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $2,000 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 70¢ $1,000 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $8,918 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $6 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $1,273 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 96¢ $1,255 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $5,460 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 96¢ $2,594 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 96¢ $2,886 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $104 21d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 12¢ $79 22d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 22d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 22d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 22d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 66¢ $2,164 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 92¢ $1,332 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 92¢ $31 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 92¢ $9 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 92¢ $50 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 92¢ $276 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 92¢ $15 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 92¢ $1 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 92¢ $10 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 92¢ $9 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,979.23 · official $5,979.23 (match) · 883 history records