Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A8 0xa8ad…93f9 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+4%) realized +$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$2
other 46% +$35
sports 5% +$14
politics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +5.8% -4.3% 71% 14% -8.9%
≤30d 14 +2.3% -7.5% 57% 7% -9.2%
≤90d 14 +2.3% -7.5% 57% 7% -9.2%
all 37 +1.3% -8.4% 43% 8% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 8% -5.5%
10% -17.1% 8% -14.5%
15% -25.1% 5% -22.8%
20% -32.5% 0% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×17.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×47.38 per $1 lost it wins $47.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage301d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 25¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $55 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +40%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $74 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 -10%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $24 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $86 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $96 +$34 +36%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 05 $2 −$1 -60%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $53 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $112 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $15 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $39 +$14 +35%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $12 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 23 $7 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 22? Aug 21 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $37 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $37 3h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 46h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 46h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $30 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $13 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $22 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $35 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $25 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $11 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $24 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $38 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $1 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $39 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 8d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 8d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $7 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.00 (match) · 156 history records