Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:51:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A8 0xa8ac…2613 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$5,242 (+34%) realized +$5,514 · open −$272
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%9W / 19L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$517per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$116est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$1,030now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,749
7 days+$2,450
14 days+$8,888
30 days+$8,888
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$1,624
sports 31% +$8,774
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +34.4% +21.6% 36% 36% +16.6%
≤30d 24 +37.7% +24.6% 38% 38% +60.9%
≤90d 28 +18.1% +6.8% 32% 32% +44.0%
all 28 +18.1% +6.8% 32% 32% +44.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.8% 32% +44.0%
10% -3.4% 32% +30.2%
15% -12.7% 32% +17.7%
20% -21.3% 32% +6.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$511) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,342 vs −$245 · ×5.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$1,030
Realized+$5,514
Unrealized−$272
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses9 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$116
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage66d
Avg bet$517
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,302 $1,030 −$272 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $75 −$74 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $153 −$45 -30%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $26 +$99 +388%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $206 −$200 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in Jun 17 $41 +$224 +546%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,533 +$1,955 +77%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $133 −$130 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $477 −$465 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,071 +$635 +59%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $204 +$462 +226%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $486 −$475 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $308 −$300 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $713 −$700 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $511 +$800 +157%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 +$96 +188%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $307 +$1,120 +365%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $850 −$163 -19%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $255 −$248 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 06 $2,694 +$6,686 +248%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $864 −$378 -44%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $417 −$417 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $637 −$637 -100%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 34¢ $75 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 30¢ $107 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $153 5h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $103 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 7h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $103 7h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $51 26h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 26h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 20¢ $133 29h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $195 29h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $128 30h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $144 31h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 56¢ $2,533 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in BUY 15¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in BUY 15¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in BUY 15¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in BUY 15¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in BUY 15¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 30¢ $102 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 30¢ $153 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 30¢ $153 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 30¢ $306 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $666 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $306 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $179 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $667 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,029.86 · official $1,029.86 (match) · 95 history records