Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:39:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8ac…47c7 politics 245 markets active 4h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$80 (-1%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%52W / 192L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$69
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$32
other 37% −$55
sports 7% +$1
world 6% −$18
crypto 4% +$1
economics 1% $0
finance 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.4% -9.9% 5% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 90 -0.5% -10.0% 8% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 163 -0.0% -9.6% 18% 1% -11.1%
all 244 -1.0% -10.5% 21% 0% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -11.0%
10% -19.0% 0% -19.5%
15% -26.9% 0% -27.3%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses52 / 192
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)244 / 245
History coverage140d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $24 $0 -1%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $25 −$1 -2%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $15 $0 -1%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $11 $0 -3%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $39 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $74 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 10 $773 −$25 -3%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 09 $1,083 −$41 -4%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 09 $11 $0 -2%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $52 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $32 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 04 $47 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $22 $0 -0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +3%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 28 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1PM ET May 26 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $6 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? May 26 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $16 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 25 $19 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $47 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $34 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? May 25 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 25 $44 $0 -1%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $37 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $6 4h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 4h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 4h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $6 5h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $6 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $9 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $9 9h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 9h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 10h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $9 10h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $9 13h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $8 14h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $8 14h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 17h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 19h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 2d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 74¢ $10 2d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 74¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $9 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $9 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $6 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $6 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $10 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $8 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $8 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $6 6d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.01 · official $6.01 (match) · 1272 history records