Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:41:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa8a9…9217 other 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$402 (+29%) realized +$383 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$585
other 49% −$212
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -37.4% -43.3% 33% 33% +24.2%
≤30d 3 -37.4% -43.3% 33% 33% +24.2%
≤90d 3 -37.4% -43.3% 33% 33% +24.2%
all 3 -37.4% -43.3% 33% 33% +24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.3% 33% +24.2%
10% -48.7% 33% +12.3%
15% -53.7% 33% +1.5%
20% -58.2% 33% -8.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt +37% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$585 vs −$116 · ×5.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$302
Realized+$383
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage6d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $148 $147 −$1 (-1%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $124 $144 +$21 (+17%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $205 −$194 -95%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $707 +$585 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.52 · official $301.33 (match) · 17 history records