Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:51:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8a9…3579 sports 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$4 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$28
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -8.3% -17.0% 49% 29% -16.3%
≤30d 38 -12.8% -21.1% 47% 26% -17.0%
≤90d 38 -12.8% -21.1% 47% 26% -17.0%
all 38 -12.8% -21.1% 47% 26% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 26% -17.0%
10% -28.6% 21% -24.9%
15% -35.5% 5% -32.2%
20% -41.9% 3% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions5
Markets (closed)38 / 43
History coverage20d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Milano: Massellani Simone vs Gabriele Bosio Massellani Simone 46¢ 40¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-11%)
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Clement Chidekh 62¢ 60¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Himeno Sakatsume 36¢ 24¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-33%)
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Sachia Vickery 19¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Luisina Giovannini 70¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Milano: Federico Iannaccone vs Petr Nesterov Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $19 −$3 -18%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $19 +$4 +23%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 15 $22 −$7 -34%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 15 $6 +$2 +28%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Lehecka/Mensik vs Johnson/Zielinski Jun 15 $21 −$1 -3%
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $9 −$2 -27%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $10 −$6 -60%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 14 $7 $0 +4%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $20 $0 -1%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $32 +$8 +25%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $12 +$3 +22%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Martyna Kubka Jun 14 $16 −$4 -26%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $26 −$2 -9%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $4 −$2 -50%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $23 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $14 +$1 +10%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $12 −$6 -46%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $6 −$1 -21%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $11 −$6 -57%
ITF Cuiaba: Noelia Zeballos vs Carolina Alves Jun 13 $3 $0 +9%
ITF Wichita: Lucas Marionneau vs Daniel Milavsky Jun 13 $9 −$3 -34%
ITF Nice: Nika Hurkacz vs Denislava Glushkova Jun 10 $5 −$1 -25%
ITF Wichita: William Manning vs Bruno Kuzuhara Jun 10 $4 −$1 -31%
ITF Wichita: Mikael Arseneault vs Sebastian Gorzny Jun 10 $2 −$1 -55%
ITF Decatur: Kylie Collins vs Malaika Rapolu Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
ITF Wichita: Pavle Marinkov vs Ryan Colby Jun 09 $2 +$2 +92%
ITF Wichita: Justin Boulais vs Ozan Baris Jun 09 $8 +$3 +38%
ITF Martos: Noah Lopez Cherubino vs Carles Hernandez Jun 09 $14 +$1 +4%
ITF Sumter: Martina Okalova vs Cadence Brace Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
ITF Troisdorf: Niels Mcdonald vs Marcel Zielinski Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Gimcheon: Alan Magadan vs Junseo Jang Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Milano: Massellani Simone vs Gabriele Bosio BUY Massellani Simone 42¢ $2 1m
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Himeno Sakatsume 30¢ $2 2m
ITF Milano: Massellani Simone vs Gabriele Bosio BUY Massellani Simone 44¢ $2 2m
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Himeno Sakatsume 35¢ $2 3m
ITF Milano: Massellani Simone vs Gabriele Bosio BUY Massellani Simone 45¢ $2 4m
ITF Milano: Federico Iannaccone vs Petr Nesterov SELL Federico Iannaccone 82¢ $12 4m
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Himeno Sakatsume 38¢ $2 4m
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith BUY Clement Chidekh 58¢ $2 5m
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith BUY Clement Chidekh 61¢ $2 8m
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Sachia Vickery 19¢ $2 9m
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Himeno Sakatsume 45¢ $2 9m
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva SELL Maya Joint 29¢ $4 10m
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith BUY Clement Chidekh 68¢ $2 10m
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider SELL Nikola Bartunkova 68¢ $13 11m
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 47¢ $2 24m
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 47¢ $2 25m
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 51¢ $2 26m
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Maya Joint 58¢ $2 27m
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Luisina Giovannini 70¢ $1 27m
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Nuno Borges 36¢ $2 28m
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 58¢ $2 28m
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Maya Joint 63¢ $2 29m
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Maya Joint 70¢ $2 30m
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Maya Joint 75¢ $2 31m
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 65¢ $2 32m
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia SELL Nicolas Mejia 63¢ $2 32m
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Maya Joint 84¢ $2 33m
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet SELL Gauthier Onclin 23¢ $2 33m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan SELL Rebeka Masarova 84¢ $3 33m
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Nicolas Mejia 50¢ $2 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.91 · official $20.91 (match) · 309 history records