Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:46:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8a7…5ddf world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$1
other 19% −$3
sports 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.1% -10.5% 25% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 12 -1.0% -10.4% 25% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 15 +0.6% -9.0% 27% 7% -9.9%
all 29 -5.0% -14.0% 41% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 3% -10.0%
10% -22.3% 3% -18.6%
15% -29.8% 0% -26.4%
20% -36.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage470d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 23 $31 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $12 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $47 −$3 -7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $64 −$1 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $31 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $32 −$1 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $21 +$5 +24%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 20 $44 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 26 $11 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 27 $1 $0 +2%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $1 $0 +2%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top Champions League scorer? Apr 16 $12 $0 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Mount St. Mary's s vs. Duke Mar 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? Mar 20 $15 $0 +2%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 20 $0 $0 -64%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $31 24h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $21 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $11 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $26 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $6 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $32 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $11 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $11 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $32 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $32 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $32 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $31 5d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $32 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $31 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $5 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $6 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $21 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $31 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records