Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:38:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa8a6…d7a8 sports 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$188 (+1%) realized +$184 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate80%57W / 14L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$365per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$842
14 days−$667
30 days−$325
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$708
other 26% −$663
politics 1% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -13.3% -21.6% 70% 50% -26.4%
≤30d 63 -0.6% -10.1% 78% 63% -10.9%
≤90d 71 +1.5% -8.1% 80% 63% -9.3%
all 71 +1.5% -8.1% 80% 63% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 63% -9.3%
10% -16.9% 45% -17.9%
15% -25.0% 14% -25.9%
20% -32.3% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$270 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$1,154
Realized+$184
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses57 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions4
Markets (closed)71 / 76
History coverage32d
Avg bet$365
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Spirit 97¢ 98¢ $500 $508 +$8 (+2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $250 $249 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 60¢ 60¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $252 −$252 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $302 +$93 +31%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $835 +$180 +22%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $353 +$120 +34%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $302 +$60 +20%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $68 +$3 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$101 +50%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,002 −$1,002 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,002 +$58 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $302 −$302 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $402 +$86 +21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $301 +$40 +13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $201 +$52 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $202 +$80 +40%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $202 +$69 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $501 −$501 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $402 +$58 +14%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 12 $193 −$193 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $301 +$32 +11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $505 +$266 +53%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $202 +$72 +36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $202 +$69 +34%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $202 +$88 +43%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $401 +$34 +8%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $252 +$65 +26%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $999 +$111 +11%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $202 +$115 +57%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $252 −$65 -26%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $201 +$49 +24%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $202 +$88 +44%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 07 $503 +$138 +27%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $230 +$62 +27%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $202 −$202 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $201 +$46 +23%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $202 +$68 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $252 +$86 +34%
Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $152 +$76 +50%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $401 +$34 +8%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $201 +$62 +31%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier May 30 $302 +$68 +22%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $201 +$19 +10%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $301 +$25 +8%
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elena Rybakina May 29 $241 −$241 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $202 −$202 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur May 27 $2,000 +$2 +0%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $302 +$60 +20%
World Championships: USA vs. Austria May 26 $201 +$25 +12%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $201 −$201 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $251 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $202 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Team Spirit 97¢ $501 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND W BUY 56¢ $253 35h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 78¢ $30 42h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 82¢ $804 42h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $252 44h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $302 44h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $353 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $202 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 96¢ $68 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $302 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,002 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 82¢ $402 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 88¢ $301 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 79¢ $201 8d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 74¢ $202 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $202 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $302 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 87¢ $402 9d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 91¢ $501 9d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $301 9d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 73¢ $202 9d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 64¢ $101 9d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 73¢ $193 10d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 65¢ $101 10d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 74¢ $202 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,153.59 · official $1,154.88 (match) · 171 history records