Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:39:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8a5…e382 sports 172 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$190 (+6%) realized +$190 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate62%106W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days+$60
14 days−$82
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$223
world 24% +$291
other 10% +$37
weather 1% $0
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 +6.6% -3.5% 67% 56% -3.7%
≤30d 169 -0.9% -10.3% 62% 52% -11.1%
≤90d 169 -0.9% -10.3% 62% 52% -11.1%
all 172 -0.5% -10.0% 62% 52% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 52% -6.4%
10% -18.6% 44% -15.4%
15% -26.4% 33% -23.5%
20% -33.7% 23% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$190
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses106 / 66
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)172 / 172
History coverage110d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 172 Trades
no open positions (54 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$9 +90%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$12 +119%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$19 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 −$5 -25%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$34 +165%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$18 +89%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$9 +48%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $2 +$4 +158%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $2 +$2 +65%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $10 +$11 +109%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $5 −$2 -46%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $2 +$3 +109%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $5 +$2 +37%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $6 $0 +3%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $2 +$1 +29%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$30 +151%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $2 $0 +26%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -99%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$7 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $5 +$5 +109%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $4 +$3 +64%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 59¢ $10 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 55¢ $10 2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $10 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 36¢ $10 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 6h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $10 7h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $10 7h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 89¢ $10 10h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 37¢ $10 11h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Jeline Vandromme 74¢ $2 11h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 85¢ $2 11h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 78¢ $2 11h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Martina Trevisan 31¢ $2 12h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $5 12h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $5 12h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Jacopo Vasami 79¢ $2 13h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Jeline Vandromme 72¢ $2 13h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 60¢ $2 14h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 38¢ $2 14h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Sara Bejlek 77¢ $2 15h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Sara Bejlek 79¢ $2 15h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 47¢ $2 15h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 47¢ $2 15h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $10 15h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Jesper de Jong 47¢ $2 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $10 15h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Martin Krumich 47¢ $2 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $10 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 390 history records