Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:41:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8a5…4964 world 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$50 (-1%) realized −$51 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate45%35W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$9
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$25
sports 19% −$83
other 18% +$14
politics 7% −$2
finance 1% $0
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +3.5% -6.3% 36% 9% -9.4%
≤30d 28 +0.7% -8.9% 46% 7% -8.2%
≤90d 57 -0.4% -9.9% 40% 4% -8.7%
all 78 -2.7% -12.0% 45% 5% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 5% -10.8%
10% -20.4% 1% -19.3%
15% -28.1% 0% -27.1%
20% -35.1% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses35 / 43
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)78 / 81
History coverage532d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 75¢ 76¢ $66 $67 +$1 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 51¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $7 +$2 +25%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $52 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $7 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $10 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $64 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $64 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $12 +$1 +7%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $120 −$1 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $64 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $150 −$2 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $175 +$7 +4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $69 +$2 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $39 +$1 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $97 +$7 +7%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $12 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $6 −$2 -38%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $4 $0 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $44 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $58 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $82 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $13 −$2 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $61 +$6 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $142 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $28 +$4 +15%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $46 +$2 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $50 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $4 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $86 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $45 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $95 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $39 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $28 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $61 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $31 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $23 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $2 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $44 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $22 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 27h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 27h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 31h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $38 43h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $15 43h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $52 45h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $14 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $44 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $54 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $21 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $9 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $34 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $24 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $38 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.40 · official $66.88 (match) · 367 history records