Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:44:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8a4…2f19 crypto 323 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$281 (-3%) realized −$231 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%93W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$58
14 days−$155
30 days−$808
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$1,380
politics 5% +$344
other 3% −$39
sports 0% −$10
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -39.7% -45.4% 17% 17% -55.5%
≤30d 166 -19.4% -27.0% 27% 25% -29.0%
≤90d 319 -12.2% -20.5% 29% 28% -15.1%
all 322 -12.4% -20.7% 29% 28% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 28% -18.9%
10% -28.3% 27% -26.6%
15% -35.2% 25% -33.7%
20% -41.6% 25% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$21 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$231
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses93 / 229
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)322 / 323
History coverage109d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 322 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$10 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$9 -82%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $14 +$18 +130%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $90 −$79 -88%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $33 −$29 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$11 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$7 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$22 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$7 -62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $81 +$79 +97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$19 +361%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$36 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$21 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$16 +60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $27 +$76 +287%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$11 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$9 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$17 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$14 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$20 -78%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$20 -78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$36 +336%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$21 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$54 +256%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$23 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 46¢ $46 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $7 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY No 15¢ $27 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $15 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $4 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY No 27¢ $27 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 8d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $160 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $41 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY No 30¢ $26 9d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 935 history records