Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:38:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8a0…3109 world 103 markets active 0h ago coverage 289d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate29%29W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days+$1
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$4
other 17% −$5
sports 14% $0
politics 13% −$2
economics 7% $0
crypto 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.8% -11.2% 11% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 29 +16.1% +5.0% 28% 3% -10.1%
≤90d 78 +5.2% -4.8% 27% 3% -9.6%
all 100 +4.0% -5.9% 29% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 2% -9.5%
10% -14.9% 2% -18.2%
15% -23.1% 2% -26.1%
20% -30.6% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

289d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses29 / 71
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)100 / 103
History coverage289d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 21¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $87 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $111 −$2 -2%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $89 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $246 +$2 +1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $5 $0 -4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $90 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $3 $0 -10%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $83 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $49 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $109 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $45 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $124 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $8 −$1 -12%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $85 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $88 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $80 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $93 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $186 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $93 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $67 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $67 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $78 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $172 −$15 -8%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $66 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $85 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $255 −$3 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $88 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $27 +$16 +57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $109 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $87 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $91 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $88 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $79 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $87 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $97 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 10 $89 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 09 $5 −$2 -36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 08 $80 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 01 $166 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $82 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $2 $0 +8%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $85 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $3 $0 -7%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $77 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $88 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $87 12m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $87 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $28 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $29 13h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $81 14h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $82 17h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $26 22h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $63 22h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $89 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $87 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $89 42h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 5¢ $5 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $1 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $2 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $81 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $78 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $90 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $90 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $83 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $83 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $91 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $90 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $65 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $64 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.43 · official $0.00 (match) · 429 history records