Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:25:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A8 0xa89d…f314 other 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,936 (-1%) realized −$1,935 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate20%27W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,012per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$521now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$13
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$1,206
politics 40% −$63
sports 11% −$673
economics 3% −$5
culture 2% −$4
world 2% −$2
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 71 -1.5% -10.9% 6% 0% -10.6%
all 135 +3.4% -6.4% 20% 13% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 13% -10.8%
10% -15.4% 13% -19.4%
15% -23.6% 11% -27.2%
20% -31.1% 10% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,448) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$31 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$521
Realized−$1,935
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses27 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage132d
Avg bet$1,012
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $521 $521 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $1,532 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $414 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $420 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $2,240 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $2,035 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $947 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $849 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2,168 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $829 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $799 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $2,272 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 03 $78 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 03 $126 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $107 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,028 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $236 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $270 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $2,438 −$3 -0%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 22 $1,135 −$1,135 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 09 $1,479 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $2,626 −$3 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $3,185 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $2,717 −$3 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $2,822 −$4 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $3,164 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $2,298 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $2,061 −$3 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 02 $1,359 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $1,322 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $1,180 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $1,324 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,375 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $2,152 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $2,807 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $997 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $1,186 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,569 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $2,654 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,962 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,455 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,931 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $416 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $416 5h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $417 5d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $418 5d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $413 5d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $414 5d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $420 7d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $420 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $453 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $454 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $521 10d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $837 11d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $839 12d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $548 12d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $549 12d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $888 12d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $890 13d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $945 13d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $947 13d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $848 13d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $849 14d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $847 14d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $848 14d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $828 19d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $829 19d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $798 21d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $799 22d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $990 22d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $991 22d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $905 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $520.60 · official $520.60 (match) · 449 history records