Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:22:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa89a…7e96 crypto 345 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$137 (-6%) realized −$131 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%130W / 212L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$207
14 days−$184
30 days−$179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$206
crypto 33% −$10
other 11% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -35.6% -41.7% 23% 23% -42.6%
≤30d 58 -25.3% -32.4% 28% 26% -36.7%
≤90d 131 -1.4% -10.8% 37% 36% -20.8%
all 342 -7.8% -16.6% 38% 36% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 36% -17.5%
10% -24.6% 35% -25.4%
15% -31.9% 34% -32.6%
20% -38.5% 32% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$131
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses130 / 212
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)342 / 345
History coverage105d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 342 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $65 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Norway 18¢ 10¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 −$9 -88%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +227%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $51 +$18 +36%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $62 −$61 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$13 +130%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 +$13 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Play Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$11 +364%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$13 +436%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $11 +$23 +205%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 3¢ $1 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 23¢ $10 1h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 18¢ $10 8h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 10¢ $1 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 23h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $34 23h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 28h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 26¢ $10 32h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 36¢ $10 32h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 44h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 45h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 58¢ $20 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 56¢ $69 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 24¢ $31 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 62¢ $20 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 71¢ $10 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $16 2d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 35¢ $5 2d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) SELL Australia 62¢ $24 2d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia 13¢ $5 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 41¢ $25 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 62¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.42 · official $88.42 (match) · 787 history records