Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T07:59:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa89a…8667
sports · 53 markets active 14h ago
10.0score
+$31,446 +27%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$31,434 · open +$12
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFresh edge
Chart Positions 2 History 51 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 78¢ 78¢ $2,560 $2,576 +$16 (+1%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $160 $156 −$4 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC 327: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $800 −$800 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Sabres Apr 10 $1,645 +$1,580 +96%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $4,838 +$3,362 +70%
Utah vs. Canucks Apr 05 $7,325 +$3,608 +49%
Canucks vs. Flames Mar 29 $6,900 +$4,600 +67%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Mar 27 $1,000 +$754 +75%
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins Mar 25 $2,974 −$2,974 -100%
Sharks vs. Predators Mar 25 $2,296 +$1,804 +79%
Lightning vs. Kraken Mar 18 $6,200 +$3,800 +61%
Maple Leafs vs. Wild Mar 16 $2,760 −$2,760 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Harry Hardwick vs. Marwan Rahiki (Featherweight, Main Mar 15 $471 +$211 +45%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Jose Miguel Delgado (Featherweight, Pr Mar 15 $796 +$266 +33%
UFC Fight Night: Chris Curtis vs. Myktybek Orolbai (Welterweight, Prel Mar 15 $484 +$188 +39%
UFC Fight Night: Manoel Sousa vs. Bolaji Oki (Lightweight, Prelims) Mar 15 $263 +$102 +39%
UFC Fight Night: Vitor Petrino vs. Steven Asplund (Heavyweight, Prelim Mar 15 $524 +$247 +47%
Ducks vs. Maple Leafs Mar 14 $1,754 −$1,754 -100%
Flyers vs. Wild Mar 14 $5,023 −$5,023 -100%
Georgetown Hoyas vs. Villanova Wildcats Mar 13 $216 +$681 +315%
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5 Mar 13 $561 +$539 +96%
Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5 Mar 13 $816 +$784 +96%
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Mar 13 $1,320 +$680 +52%
Celtics vs. Thunder Mar 13 $2,044 +$756 +37%
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-13.5) Mar 13 $750 +$745 +99%
Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-11.5) Mar 12 $750 +$743 +99%
Raptors vs. Pelicans Mar 12 $593 +$757 +128%
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) Mar 12 $848 +$752 +89%
Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 12 $800 −$800 -100%
Senators vs. Canucks Mar 10 $7,112 +$3,503 +49%
76ers vs. Cavaliers Mar 10 $8,600 +$1,400 +16%
Magic vs. Bucks Mar 09 $6,540 +$3,627 +56%
Davidson Wildcats vs. St. Bonaventure Bonnies Mar 08 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $1,706 +$731 +43%
Spread: Lakers (-9.5) Mar 07 $800 −$800 -100%
Mavericks vs. Celtics Mar 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5 Mar 06 $1,100 +$822 +75%
Hurricanes vs. Canucks Mar 05 $6,500 +$2,284 +35%
Spread: 76ers (-8.5) Mar 05 $818 +$755 +92%
Stars vs. Canucks Mar 03 $2,603 +$1,464 +56%
Spread: Rockets (-14.5) Mar 03 $800 +$800 +100%
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers Mar 03 $3,824 +$3,674 +96%
Trail Blazers vs. Hawks Mar 02 $4,000 +$2,154 +54%
UFC Fight Night: King Green vs. Daniel Zellhuber (Lightweight, Main Ca Mar 01 $180 +$720 +400%
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Mar 01 $365 +$741 +203%
Devils vs. Blues Mar 01 $1,532 +$1,472 +96%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Feb 28 $1,222 +$575 +47%
Lakers vs. Suns Feb 27 $2,817 −$2,817 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Kings Feb 26 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Thunder vs. Pistons Feb 26 $2,908 +$1,131 +39%
Spread: Hawks (-12.5) Feb 25 $800 −$800 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-24? Feb 25 $916 −$916 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% +$33,167
other 2% −$1,720
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $164 13h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $2,577 41h
Blue Jackets vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 51¢ $1,645 63d
Blackhawks vs. Sharks BUY Sharks 59¢ $4,838 66d
UFC 327: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Nate Landwehr 53¢ $800 66d
Utah vs. Canucks BUY Utah 67¢ $7,325 68d
Canucks vs. Flames BUY Flames 60¢ $6,900 75d
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 57¢ $1,000 77d
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins BUY Bruins 64¢ $2,974 79d
Sharks vs. Predators BUY Predators 56¢ $2,296 79d
Lightning vs. Kraken BUY Lightning 62¢ $6,200 86d
Maple Leafs vs. Wild BUY Wild 69¢ $2,760 88d
Georgetown Hoyas vs. Villanova Wildcats BUY Georgetown Hoyas 24¢ $216 91d
Celtics vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 73¢ $2,044 91d
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies BUY Mavericks 66¢ $1,320 91d
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-13.5) BUY Northwestern Wildcats 50¢ $557 91d
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-13.5) BUY Northwestern Wildcats 50¢ $193 91d
Flyers vs. Wild BUY Wild 67¢ $5,023 91d
Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-11.5) BUY St. Johns Red Storm 50¢ $750 91d
Ducks vs. Maple Leafs BUY Ducks 49¢ $1,754 91d
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5 BUY Under 51¢ $561 92d
Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5 BUY Under 51¢ $816 92d
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) BUY Knicks 53¢ $848 92d
Raptors vs. Pelicans BUY Pelicans 44¢ $241 92d
Raptors vs. Pelicans BUY Pelicans 44¢ $351 92d
UFC Fight Night: Harry Hardwick vs. Marwan Rahiki (Featherweight, Main BUY Marwan Rahiki 69¢ $471 93d
UFC Fight Night: Chris Curtis vs. Myktybek Orolbai (Welterweight, Prel BUY Myktybek Orolbai 72¢ $484 93d
UFC Fight Night: Manoel Sousa vs. Bolaji Oki (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Manoel Sousa 72¢ $263 93d
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Jose Miguel Delgado (Featherweight, Pr BUY Jose Miguel Delgado 75¢ $796 93d
Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 50¢ $800 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 17 +11.8% +1.1% 71% 71% +4.6%
all 51 +39.1% +25.9% 75% 75% +15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.9% 75% +15.6%
10% ← realistic here +13.8% 73% +4.5%
15% +2.8% 69% -5.6%
20% -7.2% 49% -14.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,732.20 · official $2,732.20 (match) · 110 history records