Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:49:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa899…c98c
crypto · 1991 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$1,195 +26%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,199 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$1,199
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses887 / 500
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1387 / 1991
History coverage11d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day236.9
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 2 History 1387 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$825
14 days+$1,199
30 days+$1,199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 52¢ 16¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-70%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 39¢ 8¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-78%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% +$1,377
other 3% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $0 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 956 +37.8% +24.7% 63% 63% +23.7%
≤30d 1387 +38.3% +25.1% 64% 64% +23.7%
≤90d 1387 +38.3% +25.1% 64% 64% +23.7%
all 1387 +38.3% +25.1% 64% 64% +23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover236.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.1% 64% +23.7%
10% ← realistic here +13.1% 64% +11.8%
15% +2.2% 64% +1.0%
20% -7.8% 64% -8.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.20 · official $1.90 (match) · 3500 history records