Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:20:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa897…977c crypto 304 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (191 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+1%) realized +$26 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate55%167W / 135L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day191.4pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$11
14 days−$87
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$82
culture 1% −$3
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (191 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 152 -1.9% -11.3% 69% 58% -15.0%
≤30d 302 -4.3% -13.4% 55% 42% -12.4%
≤90d 302 -4.3% -13.4% 55% 42% -12.4%
all 302 -4.3% -13.4% 55% 42% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover191.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 42% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 27% -20.7%
15% -29.3% 9% -28.4%
20% -36.2% 4% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses167 / 135
Open positions2
Markets (closed)302 / 304
History coverage11d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day191.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 76¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 78¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -38%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -37%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -87%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -16%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -54%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -28%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -81%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -58%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -67%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -79%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -24%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -67%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 2m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 8m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 12m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 14m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 14m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 15m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 17m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 24m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 24m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 26m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 29m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 35m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 43m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $0 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 44m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 49m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 49m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 49m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.51 · official $2.05 (match) · 2439 history records