Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:47:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa896…a026 crypto 174 markets active 2d ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$345 (-21%) realized −$345 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%94W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$42
14 days−$48
30 days−$357
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$357
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +25.0% +13.1% 70% 70% -18.4%
≤30d 174 -0.5% -10.0% 54% 54% -29.4%
≤90d 174 -0.5% -10.0% 54% 54% -29.4%
all 174 -0.5% -10.0% 54% 54% -29.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 54% -29.4%
10% -18.6% 54% -36.2%
15% -26.5% 54% -42.3%
20% -33.7% 54% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$345
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses94 / 80
Open positions0
Markets (closed)174 / 174
History coverage26d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 174 Trades
no open positions (80 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $95 −$92 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$30 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$6 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$6 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $18 +$12 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$6 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$14 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$4 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$5 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$5 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$6 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $7 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $84 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $40 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $16 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $8 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 309 history records