Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:48:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

A8 0xa894…6d39 other 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$209 (-22%) realized −$209 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip

Net edge-46%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%9W / 18L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$35per market

Trades / day17.9pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit15%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-41.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	27	-34.8%	-41.0%	33%	33%	-27.7%
≤30d	27	-34.8%	-41.0%	33%	33%	-27.7%
≤90d	27	-34.8%	-41.0%	33%	33%	-27.7%
all	27	-34.8%	-41.0%	33%	33%	-27.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover17.9 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-41.0%	33%	-27.7%
10%	-46.7%	26%	-34.6%
15%	-51.8%	19%	-40.9%
20%	-56.6%	19%	-46.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 46% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -35% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -14% → late -54% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$26 vs −$23 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.56 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$209

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses9 / 18

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)27 / 27

History coverage3d

Avg bet$35

Trades / day17.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 27 Trades

no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$51	+$32	+64%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$31	−$30	-98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$51	+$35	+70%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$10	+$2	+24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$68	+$21	+30%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$13	−$13	-98%
Alexander Isak: 2+ goals	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$44	−$43	-99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$41	−$40	-98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$23	−$2	-10%
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$17	−$6	-33%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$177	−$174	-99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$40	+$7	+18%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$10	−$6	-59%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$30	−$3	-11%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$40	$0	-1%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$51	+$40	+79%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$70	−$69	-98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Jun 24	$51	+$28	+54%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	Jun 24	$71	+$70	+99%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Jun 24	$16	−$9	-55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$5	−$1	-20%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$13	+$2	+11%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	90¢	$83	0m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	54¢	$51	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	32¢	$31	18h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$86	20h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	23h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	96¢	$33	26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	80¢	$10	30h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	18¢	$13	30h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	64¢	$35	30h
Alexander Isak: 2+ goals	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$44	45h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	24¢	$41	45h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	46h
Alexander Isak: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	47h
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	47h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	3¢	$7	2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	3¢	$7	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	3¢	$41	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	100¢	$48	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	55¢	$4	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	76¢	$92	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	9¢	$4	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	48¢	$27	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	89¢	$40	2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	3¢	$4	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	24¢	$20	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	84¢	$40	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records