trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +1.0% | -8.6% | 100% | 0% | -8.6% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -12.1% | -20.5% | 50% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -12.1% | -20.5% | 50% | 0% | -9.1% |
| all | 24 | -17.8% | -25.6% | 46% | 4% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -25.6% | 4% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -32.7% | 4% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -39.2% | 4% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -45.2% | 4% | -33.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 46¢ | 46¢ | $34 | $34 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 18 | $85 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 27 | $11 | −$1 | -6% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 25 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 25 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 25 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 24 | $35 | $0 | -0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 23 | $42 | $0 | +1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 23 | $6 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? | Jun 23 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? | Jun 22 | $9 | −$1 | -6% |
| Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Jun 22 | $3 | $0 | -8% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan? | Jun 21 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? | Jun 20 | $1 | −$1 | -83% |
| Will Kim Jong Un be the first leader out in 2025? | Jun 20 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? | Jun 20 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 04 | $3 | +$1 | +55% |
| Will the Left be part of the next German government? | May 07 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? | Apr 09 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Apr 08 | $9 | −$1 | -10% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 06 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Solana dip to $100 by March? | Mar 30 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? | Mar 27 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 24 | $6 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 14-21? | Mar 19 | $1 | −$1 | -92% |