Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A8 0xa88c…cfc7 other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$481 (+31%) realized +$485 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$219
7 days+$423
14 days+$467
30 days+$467
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$486
sports 5% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +20.9% +9.4% 67% 67% +22.3%
≤30d 16 +22.3% +10.7% 69% 69% +22.9%
≤90d 16 +22.3% +10.7% 69% 69% +22.9%
all 16 +22.3% +10.7% 69% 69% +22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.7% 69% +22.9%
10% +0.1% 69% +11.1%
15% -9.6% 56% +0.4%
20% -18.4% 50% -9.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$52 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.78 per $1 lost it wins $2.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$246
Realized+$485
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage8d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$148 +146%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 +$60 +197%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$84 +83%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$44 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 19m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 24m
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 41m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 59m
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 14h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 33¢ $31 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 10¢ $10 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $31 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $101 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $101 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.19 · official $246.19 (match) · 34 history records