Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:14:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A8 0xa887…5f6c other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$90 (-1%) realized −$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,336per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$473
7 days+$2,280
14 days+$283
30 days+$283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$653
crypto 15% +$1
sports 3% −$371
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -12.9% -21.2% 60% 60% +13.5%
≤30d 10 -17.1% -25.0% 50% 40% -7.6%
≤90d 10 -17.1% -25.0% 50% 40% -7.6%
all 10 -17.1% -25.0% 50% 40% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 40% -7.6%
10% -32.2% 20% -16.4%
15% -38.7% 20% -24.5%
20% -44.7% 20% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$556 vs −$500 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage8d
Avg bet$1,336
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3,499 +$459 +13%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2,912 +$456 +16%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $513 −$442 -86%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,995 +$1,856 +93%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $373 −$371 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,006 −$1,636 -82%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,000 +$1 +0%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,957 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 88¢ $3,499 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,369 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 2¢ $70 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $2,912 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $513 8h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,850 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,995 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $373 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $370 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $2,006 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,002 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $2,000 7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records