Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:41:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A8 0xa887…ef5f crypto 336 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1824 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$381 (+1%) realized +$373 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate22%178W / 622L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day1824.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,299
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1824 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-61.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 800 -57.1% -61.1% 22% 20% -21.8%
≤30d 800 -57.1% -61.1% 22% 20% -21.8%
≤90d 800 -57.1% -61.1% 22% 20% -21.8%
all 800 -57.1% -61.1% 22% 20% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1824.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -61.1% 20% -21.8%
10% ← realistic here -64.9% 15% -29.3%
15% -68.3% 12% -36.1%
20% -71.4% 10% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -96% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$34 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$373
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses178 / 622
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)800 / 336
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$161
Trades / day1824.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 800 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Up 41¢ 52¢ $32 $40 +$8 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 28 $0 +$1 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 28 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 28 $81 −$81 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $43 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $9 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $182 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $38 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $64 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $11 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $36 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $36 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $60 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $28 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.48 · official $48.25 · 3500 history records