Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:16:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa884…89ca other 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$11
politics 29% −$9
sports 17% −$33
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 74 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 113 -4.1% -13.2% 7% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 3% -9.7%
10% -21.5% 2% -18.4%
15% -29.1% 2% -26.3%
20% -36.1% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 105
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)113 / 113
History coverage133d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 113 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $168 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $18 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $22 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $185 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $129 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $488 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $134 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $181 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $154 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $185 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $157 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $292 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $181 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $356 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $133 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $155 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $195 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $139 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 13 $193 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 12 $152 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $182 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $362 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $196 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $185 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 17 $161 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $166 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $145 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $158 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $156 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $139 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $196 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $145 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $182 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $136 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $331 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 08 $143 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 08 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $302 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $141 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 06 $139 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $172 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 11h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 6d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 7d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 7d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 16d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 21d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 22d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $136 22d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $136 24d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $185 24d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $185 25d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $129 25d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $129 26d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $170 26d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $170 26d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $158 26d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $158 27d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $134 27d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $134 28d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $181 28d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $181 28d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $154 28d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $154 29d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $149 30d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $149 30d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $185 30d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $185 31d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $157 31d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $157 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 353 history records