Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:31:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A8 0xa884…2931 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$153 (-27%) realized −$139 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$135
7 days−$135
14 days−$141
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$173
crypto 24% +$18
sports 18% −$8
world 3% +$7
politics 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -46.9% -52.0% 25% 25% -47.0%
≤30d 6 -41.6% -47.1% 33% 17% -47.3%
≤90d 6 -41.6% -47.1% 33% 17% -47.3%
all 12 -27.2% -34.2% 50% 17% -40.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.2% 17% -40.2%
10% -40.5% 8% -46.0%
15% -46.2% 8% -51.2%
20% -51.5% 0% -56.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$30 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$139
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)12 / 19
History coverage117d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 94¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 87¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 22¢ 2¢ $13 $1 −$12 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $81 +$17 +21%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $100 −$8 -8%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $10 −$6 -64%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump say "Rigged Election" on Truth Social this week? Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Mar 02 $27 −$11 -39%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $15 +$7 +47%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February? Feb 28 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 23? Feb 24 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 24? Feb 23 $26 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 95¢ $33 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 75¢ $49 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $92 20h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $92 20h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $100 20h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 9d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 9d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $17 110d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $5 110d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $5 110d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 110d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $16 110d
Will Donald Trump say "Rigged Election" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 114d
GTA VI released before June 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $27 117d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 24? SELL No 99¢ $27 117d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $3 117d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 117d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 22¢ $13 117d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 24? BUY No 95¢ $26 117d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 117d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February? BUY No 96¢ $22 117d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 23? BUY No 93¢ $10 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.26 · official $95.28 (match) · 148 history records