Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:34:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa884…0cb6 other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate42%19W / 26L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$1
other 34% +$3
finance 4% +$2
politics 4% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 2% +$1
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -0.7% -10.2% 22% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 14 +0.4% -9.1% 36% 0% -9.0%
all 45 +1.9% -7.8% 42% 2% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 2% -8.7%
10% -16.7% 2% -17.4%
15% -24.7% 2% -25.4%
20% -32.1% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.88 per $1 lost it wins $3.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses19 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage467d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $37 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $37 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $9 −$1 -10%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $71 +$3 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $2 $0 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $33 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $31 +$2 +5%
Will X buy TikTok? Dec 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $13 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 20 $4 +$2 +63%
Will Denmark finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on May 7? May 09 $12 +$1 +10%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 05 $9 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 29 $9 +$1 +6%
Trump declassifies Diddy list? Apr 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 27 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Conservatives flip Liberals in the polls before the election? Apr 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 24 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Apr 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 20 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 19 $2 $0 -9%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 18 $9 $0 -3%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $12 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $37 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 10h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 11h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 11h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $36 13h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $37 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $37 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $34 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $18 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $16 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $34 47h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $34 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 28¢ $8 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 31¢ $9 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $14 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $38 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $38 30d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $38 30d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $38 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $1 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $35 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 70¢ $32 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $21 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $14 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $35 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $2 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 135 history records