Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:13:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa87d…ff4d other 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$134 (+3%) realized +$138 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate24%39W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day32.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$180
sports 25% +$334
crypto 4% +$12
world 1% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 -11.4% -19.8% 24% 22% -5.9%
≤30d 160 -11.4% -19.8% 24% 22% -5.9%
≤90d 160 -11.4% -19.8% 24% 22% -5.9%
all 160 -11.4% -19.8% 24% 22% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 22% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 19% -14.9%
15% -34.5% 17% -23.1%
20% -40.9% 15% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$18 · ×3.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized+$138
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses39 / 121
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions8
Markets (closed)160 / 171
History coverage7d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Morocco 41¢ 42¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 60¢ 58¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+3%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Morocco? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Morocco? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 114 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? Jun 29 $102 +$131 +129%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $10 +$19 +186%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $26 +$202 +786%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $202 +$69 +34%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $51 +$49 +97%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $51 +$63 +124%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $10 −$8 -80%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $36 +$207 +576%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $203 +$142 +70%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $15 −$2 -15%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $36 −$35 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $30 +$5 +16%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$12 +60%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $5 +$45 +874%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 +$18 +90%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $5 +$31 +596%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 +$3 +17%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $101 +$32 +32%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? Jun 27 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 27 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 2 Austria? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 1 Austria? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Argentina? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 27 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 27 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Portugal? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $26 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 41¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 2h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 27¢ $29 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 87¢ $10 4h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 60¢ $51 5h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 9h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 9h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 9h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 9h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 11h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 12h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 12h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 12h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 13h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $101 14h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 15h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.09 · official $232.09 (match) · 258 history records