Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:53:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa87d…a82c other 146 markets active 3h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$247 (-21%) realized −$245 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate19%23W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$5
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 26% −$112
politics 20% −$47
other 18% −$19
crypto 13% −$29
economics 11% −$7
sports 6% −$21
world 4% −$9
culture 2% −$5
finance 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -14.0% -22.2% 18% 18% -19.4%
≤30d 13 -18.9% -26.7% 23% 15% -21.3%
≤90d 26 -20.7% -28.2% 19% 12% -23.2%
all 123 -16.9% -24.8% 19% 15% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 15% -29.8%
10% -32.0% 8% -36.5%
15% -38.6% 8% -42.6%
20% -44.6% 7% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$245
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses23 / 100
Open positions23
Markets (closed)123 / 146
History coverage109d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-67%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-41%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 $0 -20%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1 $0 -26%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -27%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $3 $0 +14%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -23%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -20%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -14%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 7-13? Jun 03 $1 $0 +8%
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $21 −$2 -10%
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $60 −$8 -13%
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31? Mar 29 $6 +$1 +21%
Will xAI have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 28 $2 −$1 -34%
Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 28 $4 −$2 -52%
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 28 $6 −$4 -60%
GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -46%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by March 31? Mar 28 $1 $0 -25%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $1 $0 -31%
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Mar 23 $67 −$17 -26%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 22 $51 −$4 -8%
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 22 $54 −$5 -9%
Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas by June 30 2026? Mar 19 $16 −$6 -38%
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026? Mar 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois Mar 18 $4 +$6 +150%
Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illin Mar 18 $10 +$10 +102%
Will Daniel Biss be the Democratic nominee for IL-09? Mar 18 $32 −$27 -83%
Will Kate Abughazaleh be the Democratic nominee for IL-09? Mar 18 $23 −$20 -88%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? Mar 18 $1 +$2 +174%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Mar 18 $5 −$2 -33%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 18 $49 −$33 -68%
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? Mar 10 $1 $0 -5%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $4 $0 -5%
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 10 $34 −$17 -50%
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? Mar 10 $8 −$1 -11%
Rippling IPO before 2027? Mar 10 $1 $0 -19%
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 10 $13 −$5 -38%
Will Anthropic have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 09 $8 −$5 -68%
Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Mar 08 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 07 $1 +$1 +70%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? Mar 07 $2 −$1 -34%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 07 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 07 $2 −$1 -36%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 07 $4 −$2 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4h
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 10h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 11h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 20h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 20h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 20h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 20h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 21h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 21h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 23h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 24h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 24h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 27h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 32h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 34h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 47h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.53 · official $22.52 (match) · 858 history records