Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa87d…e49f crypto 612 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (129 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-6%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate51%312W / 300L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day129.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$182
7 days−$142
14 days−$46
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (129 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 394 -32.0% -38.5% 34% 23% -34.7%
≤30d 612 -3.5% -12.7% 51% 38% -9.6%
≤90d 612 -3.5% -12.7% 51% 38% -9.6%
all 612 -3.5% -12.7% 51% 38% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover129.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 38% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 32% -18.2%
15% -28.7% 25% -26.1%
20% -35.6% 21% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses312 / 300
Open positions0
Markets (closed)612 / 612
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day129.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 612 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$22 +428%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records