Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:56:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

A8 0xa87a…88a9 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$57 (+25%) realized +$60 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip

Net edge+41%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$38per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+46.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+62.0%	+46.6%	100%	100%	+46.6%
≤30d	1	+62.0%	+46.6%	100%	100%	+46.6%
≤90d	1	+62.0%	+46.6%	100%	100%	+46.6%
all	1	+62.0%	+46.6%	100%	100%	+46.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+46.6%	100%	+46.6%
10%	+32.6%	100%	+32.6%
15%	+19.8%	100%	+19.8%
20%	+8.0%	100%	+8.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +62% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +62% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$63 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$121

Realized+$60

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions5

Markets (closed)1 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$38

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	54¢	52¢	$34	$32	−$2 (-5%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	85¢	84¢	$31	$31	−$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	49¢	48¢	$29	$28	−$1 (-3%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	Yes	23¢	22¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	Yes	27¢	26¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$102	+$63	+62%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	49¢	$30	1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$10	1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$20	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	85¢	$31	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	54¢	$34	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$102	9h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.04 · official $121.04 (match) · 7 history records