Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:57:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A8 0xa877…2e20 sports 1400 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12,676 (-11%) realized −$12,603 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%655W / 711L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day76.0pace
Fees−$1,490est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$793now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$3,368
other 15% −$2,844
crypto 0% −$225
world 0% +$48
weather 0% −$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 349 -2.8% -12.0% 47% 47% -6.0%
≤30d 1261 -0.8% -10.2% 47% 47% -11.6%
≤90d 1366 +1.3% -8.4% 48% 48% -9.2%
all 1366 +1.3% -8.4% 48% 48% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 48% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 47% -17.9%
15% -25.2% 45% -25.8%
20% -32.5% 43% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$77 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$793
Realized−$12,603
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses655 / 711
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$1,490
Open positions39
Markets (closed)1366 / 1400
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$85
Trades / day76.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 1366 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Under 56¢ 40¢ $191 $136 −$55 (-29%)
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Zsombor Piros 59¢ 59¢ $108 $108 +$0 (+0%)
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Rio Noguchi 52¢ 58¢ $82 $92 +$10 (+12%)
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Genaro Alberto Olivieri 48¢ 50¢ $75 $78 +$2 (+3%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Vit Kopriva 9¢ 6¢ $75 $54 −$21 (-28%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 49¢ 48¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 66¢ 54¢ $39 $32 −$7 (-19%)
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski Daniel Michalski 29¢ 30¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+2%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ 38¢ $25 $22 −$4 (-14%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ 38¢ $19 $14 −$5 (-27%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Over 51¢ 51¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Under 57¢ 51¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-11%)
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $6 $8 +$3 (+53%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ 54¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Petra Marcinko 60¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+67%)
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Henry Searle 49¢ 81¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+66%)
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Alex de Minaur 80¢ 81¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 72¢ 76¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Sweeny vs. Fearnley: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Under 70¢ 74¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Felix Balshaw 73¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Miomir Kecmanovic 57¢ 60¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+4%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 62¢ 68¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Caty McNally 66¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Elina Svitolina 66¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Halle Open (Doubles): Bellucci/Kyrgios vs Quinn/Tien Bellucci/Kyrgios 55¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 357 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $3 +$3 +114%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $80 +$74 +93%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $2 +$3 +129%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $4 +$2 +67%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $2 +$3 +105%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $153 +$154 +101%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +186%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $152 −$150 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen Jun 15 $80 −$2 -2%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bu vs. Virtanen: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $159 −$157 -99%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $33 +$64 +197%
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $2 +$3 +197%
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke Jun 15 $15 +$16 +105%
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Ana Sofia Sanchez Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
Figueira Da Foz: Carolyn Ansari vs Barbora Palicova Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 15 $4 +$1 +27%
Buse vs. Jodar: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 -3%
Set 1 Winner: Buse vs Jodar Jun 15 $80 −$3 -3%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar Jun 15 $75 +$54 +72%
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 15 $3 $0 -3%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro Jun 15 $4 −$1 -32%
Figueira Da Foz: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoria Hruncakova Jun 15 $2 +$3 +129%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 15 $3 $0 -11%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $77 −$75 -98%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $76 −$75 -98%
Shevchenko vs. Olivieri: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $77 −$75 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $43 +$37 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $477 +$364 +76%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $67 −$65 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski BUY Daniel Michalski 29¢ $2 4m
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 48¢ $77 42m
Set Handicap: Erel (-1.5) vs Tabata (+1.5) BUY Tabata 47¢ $3 57m
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 49¢ $2 1h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Zsombor Piros 59¢ $109 1h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 73¢ $4 1h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Santiago De La Fuente 42¢ $1 2h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski BUY Daniel Michalski 29¢ $3 5h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 43¢ $2 5h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski BUY Daniel Michalski 29¢ $2 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 48¢ $153 7h
Set Handicap: Pliskova (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5) BUY Bejlek 49¢ $3 7h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 50¢ $75 7h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 7h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $152 7h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $3 7h
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 51¢ $80 8h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 8h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 55¢ $3 8h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $2 8h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $2 8h
Bu vs. Virtanen: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 8h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 47¢ $153 8h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $80 9h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $159 10h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $153 10h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski BUY Daniel Michalski 29¢ $2 10h
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur BUY Rio Noguchi 52¢ $33 11h
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur BUY Rio Noguchi 52¢ $49 11h
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Besiktas 22¢ $75 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $793.01 · official $793.01 (match) · 3500 history records