Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:43:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A8 0xa872…1faa crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+2%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +11.8% +1.2% 69% 69% +3.9%
≤30d 13 +11.8% +1.2% 69% 69% +3.9%
≤90d 13 +11.8% +1.2% 69% 69% +3.9%
all 13 +11.8% +1.2% 69% 69% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 69% +3.9%
10% -8.5% 69% -6.1%
15% -17.4% 69% -15.1%
20% -25.5% 62% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 25% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 56¢ 56¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.82 · official $2.77 (match) · 24 history records