Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:20:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa86d…249a crypto 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$59 (-6%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%39W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$16
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$10
sports 7% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -32.8% -39.2% 26% 26% -6.9%
≤30d 29 -26.0% -33.1% 31% 31% -6.8%
≤90d 91 -9.1% -17.7% 43% 36% -11.5%
all 91 -9.1% -17.7% 43% 36% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 36% -11.5%
10% -25.6% 32% -20.0%
15% -32.8% 30% -27.7%
20% -39.4% 27% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses39 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage73d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $165 +$133 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 21 $41 −$37 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$12 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$18 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $37 +$30 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$36 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$11 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - DreamLeague Western Europe Jun 14 $18 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Dota 2: 1win vs MODUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Eastern Europe Closed Qualif Apr 12 $16 −$16 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs Ivory (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Closed Qualifie Apr 12 $26 +$6 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 12 $3 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 12 $3 +$2 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 12 $1 $0 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 12 $1 +$2 +207%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 12 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 11 $15 −$14 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 11 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 11 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 11 $1 +$5 +542%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 10 $3 −$1 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $298 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $165 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $83 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $41 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $9 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $0 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 206 history records