Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:33:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A8 0xa86d…49f2 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,195 (-51%) realized −$2,190 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$360per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$698now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$119
7 days+$213
14 days−$2,189
30 days−$2,189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$2,192
crypto 21% −$1
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +29.4% +17.1% 80% 80% +48.1%
≤30d 7 -7.6% -16.4% 57% 57% -81.9%
≤90d 7 -7.6% -16.4% 57% 57% -81.9%
all 7 -7.6% -16.4% 57% 57% -81.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 57% -81.9%
10% -24.4% 57% -83.6%
15% -31.7% 43% -85.2%
20% -38.4% 43% -86.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -80% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$801 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$698
Realized−$2,190
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage13d
Avg bet$360
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $578 $573 −$5 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? No 17¢ 17¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $91 +$49 +54%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$55 +54%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $90 +$94 +105%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $1,532 −$1,532 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $895 −$870 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 17¢ $26 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 18h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 36h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 37h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 37h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $81 38h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 43h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $564 44h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $184 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 48¢ $90 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $1,234 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14 BUY 2¢ $824 11d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $298 12d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $366 12d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $508 12d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY 5¢ $10 12d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $697.76 · official $697.76 (match) · 28 history records