trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 15 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 67% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 15 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 67% | 0% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.2% | 0% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -17.8% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -25.8% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -33.1% | 0% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$180 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$375 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? | No | 98¢ | 67¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-32%) |
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at <$350 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? | No | 98¢ | 62¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-37%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | Jun 15 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 15? | Jun 15 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | Jun 15 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 15? | Jun 15 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $430 on May 15? | Jun 15 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on April 21? | May 15 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on April 21? | May 15 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 on April 21? | May 15 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Seamus Casey win the 2025–2026 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy? | Mar 27 | $799 | $0 | +0% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March | Mar 27 | $935 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Mar 27 | $822 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 27 | $906 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Mar 27 | $936 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Moonshot have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026? | Mar 27 | $924 | $0 | +0% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET | Mar 27 | $1 | $0 | +4% |