Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa86b…5ca7 other 130 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$12
14 days−$19
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$20
politics 22% −$12
sports 18% −$20
culture 9% −$6
economics 7% −$2
crypto 6% −$8
world 4% −$1
tech 2% −$3
finance 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.5% -10.0% 4% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 62 -0.6% -10.1% 5% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 111 -0.5% -10.0% 8% 0% -9.8%
all 130 -0.5% -9.9% 9% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 118
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 130
History coverage99d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 130 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $36 $0 -1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $111 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $96 −$1 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $67 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 15 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $164 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $36 $0 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $141 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $151 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $69 −$1 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $11 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $48 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $38 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 09 $68 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $106 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 06 $44 −$2 -4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $90 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 05 $42 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 04 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $116 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $184 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $59 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $238 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $569 −$2 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $36 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $38 $0 -1%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $44 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $251 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $55 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $304 −$1 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $285 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 18m
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 6h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $36 6h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 11h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $47 12h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $47 16h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $53 17h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $53 24h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $52 24h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $53 29h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $67 30h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $67 36h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $43 37h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $43 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 91¢ $50 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $51 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $46 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $47 2d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $56 2d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $43 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $43 3d
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $36 3d
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $36 3d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $52 3d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $52 3d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $6 3d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $52 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $52 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 488 history records