Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:40:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa86b…0dc6
world · 167 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$183 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$176 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$52
Realized−$176
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses51 / 100
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions16
Markets (closed)151 / 167
History coverage534d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 16 History 151 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$32
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 42¢ 46¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Switzerland leading at halftime? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Vitaliy Sachko 42¢ 40¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Yes 59¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? No 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 46¢ 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-53%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 45¢ 15¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-67%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No 26¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 4? No 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Team Yandex 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Team WE 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Salvatore Alfano win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner FlyQuest 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -10%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 11 $1 $0 -21%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $21 +$5 +26%
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 -5%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -19%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $25 −$5 -21%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Jun 11 $6 $0 +6%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $59 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $9 −$5 -53%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $13 −$3 -20%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 10 $14 +$9 +64%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 10 $7 +$2 +20%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Jun 10 $11 +$2 +17%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $22 +$6 +27%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $103 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -12%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 10 $26 +$6 +22%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $12 +$2 +20%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Salvatore Alfano win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $2 +$5 +252%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Jun 07 $31 −$1 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $23 −$1 -4%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 -20%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $6 −$3 -52%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 04 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 04 $0 $0 -96%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $5 +$5 +86%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $3 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $2 $0 -17%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $5 −$1 -13%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $1 +$1 +62%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 4? Jun 04 $0 $0 -94%
Will Gerlando Alonge win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 56% −$142
other 24% −$11
world 15% −$25
politics 4% −$5
tech 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$2
finance 0% +$4
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 49m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 35¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 34¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $2 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 3h
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Vitaliy Sachko 42¢ $2 3h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 3h
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 38¢ $2 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 37¢ $2 4h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 4h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 38¢ $2 5h
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Vitaliy Sachko 42¢ $2 5h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 5h
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Vitaliy Sachko 42¢ $2 6h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 6h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 6h
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $18 2d
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $4 2d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -14.8% -22.9% 41% 26% -11.5%
≤30d 68 -21.3% -28.8% 38% 28% -12.9%
≤90d 123 -33.1% -39.5% 35% 24% -24.5%
all 151 -22.2% -29.7% 34% 23% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 23% -12.3%
10% -36.4% 15% -20.7%
15% -42.5% 11% -28.4%
20% -48.2% 10% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.34 · official $52.34 (match) · 859 history records