Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:57:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa869…1448 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$1
crypto 17% $0
sports 11% $0
politics 11% $0
tech 6% $0
economics 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 18 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage117d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $80 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $80 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $80 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 15 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 11 $80 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $82 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $81 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $81 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $81 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $81 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Mar 27 $81 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $82 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? Mar 15 $82 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $82 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 08 $82 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 03 $82 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $80 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $80 14h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $80 11d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $80 11d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $80 27d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $80 28d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $80 31d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $80 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $80 43d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $80 44d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $80 47d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $44 48d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $7 48d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $8 48d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $22 48d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $81 71d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $82 71d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $82 73d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $82 74d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $81 76d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $81 77d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $81 77d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $81 78d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $81 81d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $81 81d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $81 84d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $81 85d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $81 92d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $81 93d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $81 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records