Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:46:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A8 0xa868…2038 crypto 217 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (145 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11,786 (+1%) realized +$11,761 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate87%185W / 28L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$4,334per market
Trades / day144.8pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,978
7 days+$3,247
14 days+$7,364
30 days+$13,231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$6,024
other 7% +$1,011
sports 3% +$807
tech 3% +$5,414
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (145 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -1.3% -10.7% 95% 3% -8.4%
≤30d 213 -3.3% -12.5% 87% 3% -8.2%
≤90d 213 -3.3% -12.5% 87% 3% -8.2%
all 213 -3.3% -12.5% 87% 3% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover144.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 3% -8.2%
10% -20.9% 2% -17.0%
15% ← realistic here -28.5% 1% -25.0%
20% -35.5% 1% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$5,995) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$118 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.0 per $1 lost it wins $5.0
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$1,285
Realized+$11,761
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses185 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)213 / 217
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$4,334
Trades / day144.8
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 213 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ByteDance IPO before 2027? No 90¢ 92¢ $523 $540 +$17 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $486 $487 +$2 (+0%)
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $251 $257 +$6 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $24,355 +$453 +2%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $4,886 +$250 +5%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 18 $14,629 +$317 +2%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $2,163 +$90 +4%
Spread: Panama (-2.5) Jun 18 $329 +$3 +1%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $9,824 +$147 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $2,064 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $693 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $14,987 +$14 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $10,989 +$11 +0%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $27,636 +$297 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9,798 +$216 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $10,894 +$110 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 16? Jun 16 $506 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $6,990 +$71 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $17,831 +$92 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,646 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 15? Jun 15 $6,099 +$12 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $4,995 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 15? Jun 15 $3,263 +$6 +0%
XRP Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1,692 +$10 +1%
Solana Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1,024 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $525 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $4,095 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $9,440 +$599 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2,092 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $9,991 +$9 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $9,807 +$60 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $16,263 +$77 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $8,209 +$83 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $9,911 +$96 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $3,233 +$30 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $4,409 +$45 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $2,316 +$23 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $5,464 +$55 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $4,951 +$50 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $2,657 −$405 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 10 $53 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $7,524 +$76 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $10,900 +$108 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $325 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $4,959 +$44 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $998 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 10 $3,963 +$40 +1%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 09 $5,179 +$5,277 +102%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $12,989 +$12 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 09 $3,822 +$39 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $198 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 98¢ $20 55m
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 99¢ $109 55m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 100¢ $7,971 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $1,562 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $3,339 1h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 95¢ $1,450 1h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 95¢ $3,307 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $962 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $13 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $133 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $489 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $46 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $36 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $4,904 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $4,376 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $245 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $279 1h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Ghana 98¢ $21 4h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Ghana 99¢ $4,386 4h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Ghana 99¢ $564 4h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Ghana 98¢ $1,953 4h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Ghana 98¢ $2,855 4h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Ghana 97¢ $4,850 4h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 96¢ $535 4h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 96¢ $240 4h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 96¢ $240 4h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 96¢ $208 4h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 96¢ $240 4h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 96¢ $96 4h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 96¢ $600 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,284.72 · official $1,284.72 (match) · 3500 history records