Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa864…3834 crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$40 (-7%) realized −$18 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$2
sports 17% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +4.5% -5.4% 35% 35% +3.1%
≤30d 17 +4.5% -5.4% 35% 35% +3.1%
≤90d 17 +4.5% -5.4% 35% 35% +3.1%
all 17 +4.5% -5.4% 35% 35% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 35% +3.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 35% -6.7%
15% -22.7% 29% -15.7%
20% -30.3% 29% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$22 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 61¢ 8¢ $25 $3 −$22 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$21 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$89 +338%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $37 +$81 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $137 +$44 +32%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $69 +$72 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 61¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.28 · official $3.28 (match) · 43 history records