Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:57:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa85f…1d1d crypto 300 markets active 1d ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$617 (-10%) realized −$617 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%284W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$10
14 days+$23
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$302
finance 12% +$13
other 9% −$175
sports 7% −$162
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 144 +0.6% -9.0% 99% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 299 -3.5% -12.7% 95% 0% -21.8%
all 300 -2.4% -11.7% 95% 0% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 0% -18.4%
10% -20.2% 0% -26.2%
15% -27.9% 0% -33.3%
20% -34.9% 0% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$60 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$617
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses284 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)300 / 300
History coverage230d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 300 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +6%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $13 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $26 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $16 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 26h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 26h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $16 41h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $13 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $13 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $29 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.43 · official $0.00 · 1991 history records