Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:34:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa85f…d9ec crypto 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$753 (+1%) realized +$753 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate81%115W / 27L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$355per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$325
7 days+$325
14 days+$370
30 days+$608
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$918
politics 17% +$750
other 10% +$392
tech 5% +$139
world 3% +$172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +9.0% -1.4% 100% 50% -1.8%
≤30d 6 +8.1% -2.2% 100% 50% -3.2%
≤90d 48 +1.4% -8.3% 75% 44% -5.2%
all 142 +2.9% -6.9% 81% 42% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 42% -8.6%
10% -15.8% 22% -17.3%
15% -23.9% 8% -25.3%
20% -31.4% 4% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$173 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$753
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses115 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)142 / 142
History coverage90d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 142 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,001 +$34 +2%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $1,788 +$292 +16%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 08 $1,744 +$45 +3%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $1,566 +$172 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 02 $82 +$11 +13%
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 May 31 $1,503 +$55 +4%
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $554 +$100 +18%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $705 +$106 +15%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 12 $1,210 +$65 +5%
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Au May 09 $1,104 +$92 +8%
Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils? May 09 $996 +$144 +14%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 30 $991 +$9 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 28 $915 +$20 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 28 $517 +$57 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 21 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 21 $115 +$115 +100%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 21 Apr 21 $801 +$18 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 21 $100 +$78 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 21 $100 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 21 $100 +$3 +3%
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary elect Apr 20 $773 +$28 +4%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 14 $553 +$220 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 10 $288 −$288 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 22 $280 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 22 $380 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 22 $236 +$44 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 22 $200 −$39 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 22 $100 −$35 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 22 $200 −$22 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 22 $300 −$26 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 22 $100 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 22 $500 −$141 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 22 $200 +$38 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 22 $400 −$41 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 22 $100 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 22 $200 −$17 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 22 $100 +$75 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 22 $100 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 22 $400 +$103 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 22 $200 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 22 $200 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 22 $100 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 22 $100 +$47 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 22 $100 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 21 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 21 $100 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 21 $200 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,035 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 98¢ $2,001 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,788 10d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 100¢ $1,789 10d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 97¢ $1,744 15d
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial BUY Yes 91¢ $60 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $41 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $42 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $41 17d
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial BUY Yes 90¢ $1,506 19d
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 SELL Yes 99¢ $1,558 19d
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 BUY Yes 95¢ $1,503 33d
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $705 35d
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $554 38d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $1,275 38d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $1,210 41d
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Au SELL Yes 99¢ $1,196 41d
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Au BUY Yes 91¢ $1,104 41d
Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,139 41d
Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils? BUY Yes 86¢ $91 50d
Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils? BUY Yes 86¢ $905 50d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 99¢ $999 50d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 98¢ $991 51d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun SELL Yes 96¢ $418 52d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $573 52d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $517 54d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun SELL Yes 96¢ $86 54d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun SELL Yes 96¢ $431 54d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun BUY Yes 94¢ $915 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $9 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 376 history records