Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:05:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa85d…1a7c other 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$44 (+1%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate74%65W / 23L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$6
other 46% +$50
crypto 1% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.3% -5.7% 100% 0% -5.7%
≤30d 3 -31.6% -38.1% 67% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 9 -40.5% -46.2% 56% 11% -14.3%
all 88 +0.3% -9.2% 74% 7% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 7% -8.7%
10% -17.9% 2% -17.5%
15% -25.9% 1% -25.4%
20% -33.1% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses65 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage590d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $4 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $43 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 11? May 11 $2 $0 +21%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 08 $6 −$6 -99%
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 06 $10 +$1 +9%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? Mar 29 $91 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 100-119 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 25 $90 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Tate post 640-669 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 24 $3 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 12 $3 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026? Jan 28 $16 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 25 $16 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 21 $14 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026? Jan 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 11 $14 −$8 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 07 $15 $0 +2%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 01 $40 +$2 +5%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Jan 01 $4 $0 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025? Dec 27 $31 +$1 +2%
Over $30M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 21 $4 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 17 $4 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 09 $16 $0 +2%
Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale? Dec 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 04 $3 $0 +4%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? Nov 26 $6 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 21 $12 $0 +1%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Nov 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? Nov 10 $21 +$1 +6%
Over $4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 31 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? Oct 25 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Oct 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12? Sep 12 $43 +$2 +4%
Will Elon tweet 900 or more times August 29–September 5? Sep 05 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 22–August 29? Aug 30 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 22–August 29? Aug 30 $21 +$2 +7%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22? Aug 23 $4 +$66 +1513%
Will Elon tweet 400–424 times August 15–August 22? Aug 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon tweet 375–399 times August 15–August 22? Aug 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon tweet 350–374 times August 15–August 22? Aug 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times August 15–August 22? Aug 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times August 15–August 22? Aug 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times August 15–August 22? Aug 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times August 15–August 22? Aug 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times August 8–August 15? Aug 16 $56 +$2 +4%
Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 1–August 8? Aug 09 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Elon tweet 285–299 times August 1–August 8? Aug 07 $56 +$2 +3%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 25–August 1? Aug 01 $49 +$2 +4%
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18? Jul 19 $51 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $26 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $4 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $2 11d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 24d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $1 30d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 11? BUY No 82¢ $2 45d
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 85¢ $6 77d
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 65¢ $1 77d
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $10 82d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? BUY No 100¢ $91 91d
Will Khamenei post 100-119 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $90 92d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $3 107d
Will Andrew Tate post 640-669 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $3 108d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $16 151d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 BUY No 98¢ $16 152d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $14 160d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $15 164d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $5 164d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $14 167d
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 BUY No 98¢ $15 171d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025? BUY No 98¢ $31 184d
Over $30M committed to the Gensyn public sale? BUY No 93¢ $4 186d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 90¢ $4 189d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY No 94¢ $4 195d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 BUY No 98¢ $16 201d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 BUY No 96¢ $3 206d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 BUY No 99¢ $12 217d
Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale? BUY No 29¢ $3 219d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? BUY No 95¢ $6 225d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? BUY No 94¢ $21 230d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.29 · official $26.29 (match) · 176 history records