Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:20:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa85c…7a8f crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$41 (+3%) realized +$42 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate93%27W / 2L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$38
other 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +2.4% -7.3% 93% 17% -6.4%
≤30d 29 +2.4% -7.3% 93% 17% -6.4%
≤90d 29 +2.4% -7.3% 93% 17% -6.4%
all 29 +2.4% -7.3% 93% 17% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 17% -6.4%
10% -16.2% 3% -15.4%
15% -24.3% 0% -23.5%
20% -31.7% 0% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.27 per $1 lost it wins $3.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$42
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses27 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage5d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 99¢ 98¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $111 −$8 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $61 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $57 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $57 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $53 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $45 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $35 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $43 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $29 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 +$3 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $53 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $51 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $55 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $45 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $45 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $45 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $35 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $43 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $41 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.24 · official $1.26 · 84 history records