trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -36.3% | -42.4% | 0% | 0% | -51.0% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -23.4% | -30.7% | 43% | 0% | -21.4% |
| ≤90d | 20 | -28.3% | -35.2% | 30% | 15% | -18.5% |
| all | 27 | -34.6% | -40.8% | 33% | 15% | -17.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -40.8% | 15% | -17.3% |
| 10% | -46.5% | 7% | -25.3% |
| 15% | -51.6% | 4% | -32.5% |
| 20% | -56.4% | 4% | -39.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 34¢ | 46¢ | $280 | $380 | +$100 (+36%) |
| Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? | No | 62¢ | 60¢ | $100 | $98 | −$2 (-2%) |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 9¢ | 9¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+5%) |
| Will George Pickens play for Indianapolis Colts in 2026-27? | Yes | 34¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 19 | $312 | −$173 | -55% |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? | Jun 14 | $104 | −$18 | -17% |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? | Jun 10 | $104 | −$100 | -96% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 08 | $1,040 | +$4 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 08 | $520 | −$51 | -10% |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | May 28 | $76 | +$7 | +8% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 28 | $208 | +$20 | +10% |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Apr 16 | $200 | +$30 | +15% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Apr 15 | $100 | −$29 | -29% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 15 | $200 | −$2 | -1% |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Apr 15 | $115 | −$24 | -21% |
| Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | Apr 14 | $100 | −$2 | -2% |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | Apr 12 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? | Apr 12 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Apr 12 | $10 | −$7 | -68% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Apr 08 | $200 | +$137 | +68% |
| Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31? | Mar 28 | $35 | −$34 | -96% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Mar 27 | $100 | −$81 | -81% |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Mar 27 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? | Mar 25 | $10 | +$1 | +12% |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | Mar 16 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Mar 14 | $100 | +$8 | +8% |
| Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31? | Mar 14 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | Mar 13 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 11? | Mar 11 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Iran strike Turkey in March? | Mar 09 | $100 | +$26 | +26% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 6? | Mar 09 | $3 | $0 | +0% |