Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa85a…b05b world 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-14%) realized −$10 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$3
other 20% $0
tech 20% −$10
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-70.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -67.3% -70.4% 0% 0% -70.4%
≤30d 3 -67.3% -70.4% 0% 0% -70.4%
≤90d 3 -67.3% -70.4% 0% 0% -70.4%
all 3 -67.3% -70.4% 0% 0% -70.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -70.4% 0% -70.4%
10% -73.2% 0% -73.2%
15% -75.8% 0% -75.8%
20% -78.2% 0% -78.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -67% · $-wt -67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions15
Markets (closed)3 / 18
History coverage5d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 35¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+59%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 76¢ 75¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 75¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 8¢ 14¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+81%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? No 98¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY No 98¢ $1 20m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 28m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $3 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $5 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $5 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $1 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 10h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 10h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J SELL Yes 40¢ $2 13h
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 13h
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J BUY Yes 22¢ $5 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 17¢ $5 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 33¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.54 · official $36.54 (match) · 24 history records