Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:38:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A8 0xa859…48b9 sports 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$513 (-4%) realized −$524 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%38W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$3,775now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,338
7 days−$1,338
14 days−$1,500
30 days−$1,888
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$2,490
sports 28% +$973
world 20% +$1,230
crypto 1% −$102
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +31.7% +19.1% 71% 71% -26.5%
≤30d 71 -5.1% -14.1% 51% 51% -31.8%
≤90d 77 +0.3% -9.3% 49% 49% -13.0%
all 77 +0.3% -9.3% 49% 49% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 49% -13.0%
10% -18.0% 44% -21.3%
15% -25.9% 39% -28.9%
20% -33.2% 31% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$137 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$3,775
Realized−$524
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses38 / 39
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions19
Markets (closed)77 / 96
History coverage85d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 82¢ $1,807 $2,266 +$459 (+25%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 84¢ $314 $353 +$40 (+13%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $177 $172 −$5 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $143 $148 +$6 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $140 $147 +$7 (+5%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $103 $100 −$3 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $89 $88 −$1 (-1%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $82 $84 +$2 (+3%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $79 $78 −$2 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $82 $72 −$10 (-12%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 42¢ 52¢ $49 $60 +$11 (+23%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $61 $57 −$4 (-7%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 33¢ 18¢ $54 $29 −$26 (-47%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 33¢ $14 $12 −$1 (-10%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 98¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+51%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-19%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $104 +$43 +42%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $111 +$82 +74%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $103 +$143 +140%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $359 +$94 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $528 +$215 +41%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $429 +$331 +77%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 17 $8 −$17 -198%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $49 −$48 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $99 −$98 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $536 −$223 -42%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $146 −$7 -5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $82 +$315 +384%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $951 +$734 +77%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $228 −$226 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $239 −$235 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,620 −$2,592 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $116 −$113 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $39 −$39 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $67 −$67 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 15 $18 −$8 -48%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 15 $8 +$4 +54%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $12 $0 -1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 15 $21 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 15 $8 +$10 +118%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 15 $49 +$36 +73%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 15 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +17%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 15 $8 +$2 +32%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +29%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $7 +$4 +50%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 15 $9 +$4 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 15 $9 +$4 +40%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 15 $8 +$5 +55%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 15 $9 +$6 +67%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 15 $9 +$6 +70%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 15 $10 +$7 +67%
Map Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (+1.5) Jun 15 $9 +$9 +105%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $11 +$7 +65%
Valorant: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO5) - China Evolution Series Act 2 Pla Jun 15 $15 +$10 +70%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $33 +$9 +28%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 15 $16 +$21 +126%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $44 +$28 +63%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $51 +$9 +17%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 15 $63 +$35 +56%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 15 $34 +$50 +146%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $47 +$92 +197%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $11 −$11 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $121 18m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $125 26m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $131 29m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $134 35m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $144 55m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $144 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $149 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $156 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $161 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $154 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $166 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $178 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $184 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $49 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $50 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $48 2h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 69¢ $54 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $55 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $58 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 76¢ $53 3h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 49¢ $57 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 75¢ $61 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 75¢ $65 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 79¢ $67 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $35 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $38 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $41 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $44 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $47 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $50 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,775.20 · official $3,774.59 (match) · 387 history records