Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:42:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa855…3a4e crypto 1010 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (161 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17,127 (-109%) realized −$17,157 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -69% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate4%43W / 959L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day161.4pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$580now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$1,077
sports 21% +$940
other 18% −$125
world 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (161 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-72.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 608 -67.0% -70.1% 6% 5% -5.1%
≤30d 1002 -69.1% -72.0% 4% 4% -2.4%
≤90d 1002 -69.1% -72.0% 4% 4% -2.4%
all 1002 -69.1% -72.0% 4% 4% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover161.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -72.0% 4% -2.4%
10% ← realistic here -74.7% 4% -11.8%
15% -77.1% 4% -20.3%
20% -79.4% 3% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -69% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -70% → late -68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$177 vs −$6 · ×29.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$580
Realized−$17,157
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses43 / 959
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1002 / 1010
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day161.4
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1002 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 37¢ 34¢ $250 $232 −$18 (-7%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 60¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 58¢ 95¢ $50 $82 +$32 (+64%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 52¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 46¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $106 +$207 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $1,077 −$1,077 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $1,910 +$1,986 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $1,023 −$1,023 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $188 −$188 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $518 −$518 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $515 +$317 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $264 +$431 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $46 +$46 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$118 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $106 +$574 +542%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$14 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 38m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $102 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $178 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $16 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $579.84 · official $578.55 (match) · 3500 history records