Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:39:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa854…21f8
other · 7 markets active 2h ago
4.5score
+$3 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage14d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit29%
Chart Positions 1 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iceland win on 2026-05-31? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Yes 75¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 +$1 +33%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +74%
Will Iceland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 70% +$4
crypto 30% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 10d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 12d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 12d
Will Iceland win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +1.3% -8.3% 67% 67% +4.2%
≤90d 6 +1.3% -8.3% 67% 67% +4.2%
all 6 +1.3% -8.3% 67% 67% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 67% +4.2%
10% -17.1% 67% -5.7%
15% -25.1% 50% -14.9%
20% -32.5% 33% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.86 · official $3.86 (match) · 11 history records